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做项目计划,千万别忽略这3点

发布时间: |2021年07月13日 | 点击次数:| 关键词:PMP,PMP培训,PMP认证,项目经理,项目管理,优培东方
古人云:“凡事预则立,不预则废。”英文中也有类似的说法,如“Failing to plan is planning to fail” (没有计划就是计划着失败)。项目计划是项目管理的重要组成部分,项目经理做项目计划时要谨记三点:帕金森定律(Parkinson’s Law)、学生综合征(Student Syndrome)和墨菲定律(Murphy’s Law)。

 

 
1.帕金森定律
帕金森定律指出,即使一项任务实际上可以在较短的时间内完成,但该任务的预估时间很可能会被全部使用。人们会找到一些有用但不一定必要的事情去做,来填满分配给一项任务的全部时间。因此,在做项目计划时,要压缩单个任务的预估时间,鼓励团队成员发挥创造力在较短的目标时间内完成任务。

 

Parkinson’s Law 
 
This law states that “Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.” This statement was part of an article published in The Economist in 1955 by Cyril Northcote Parkinson, a British author, based on his experience working in the British civil service. 
 
Parkinson’s Law notes that the time you estimate for a specific task will likely be used in full even if the task could actually be completed in a shorter period of time. The same applies to meetings. A meeting planned for one hour will likely go on for the whole hour even when the planned objective of the meeting was achieved within the first thirty or forty-five minutes. 
 
In most cases, if you give someone four hours to complete a task, they will likely spend at least the full four hours on the task even if it could be completed in two hours. People will find things to do, which may be useful but not necessarily essential, to fill the whole time allotted for the task. 
 
Parkinson’s Law can be leveraged in planning by taking the padding out of individual task estimates and challenging project team members to be creative and explore ways to complete their tasks within the targeted shorter timeline. 
 
However, Parkinson’s Law should not be used to set unachievable goals. Additionally, project managers should keep a contingency buffer for the whole project to be used in cases where the assumed estimates for individual tasks were too ambitious. This approach is one of the techniques used by the Critical Chain method.

 

 
2.学生综合征
学生综合征是指项目团队成员把工作推到最后一刻,在任务开始时以更慢、更放松的节奏工作,类似于学生们把备考工作一直推到考试前最后一天。
 
要完全消除学生综合征不太可能,但项目经理可以利用一些技巧来控制它,例如,为任务分配较短的时间估计, 在时间上预留余地;设立完成特定任务的里程碑,并定期对照这些里程碑来监控进度;创建更短、更易于管理的任务。
 
Student Syndrome 
 
This term was coined by Eliyahu M. Goldratt, an author, and originator of the Theory of Constraints (TOC), in his book, The Critical Chain. 
 
Goldratt used this term to refer to project team members pushing work to the last moments and working at a slower and more relaxed pace at the beginning of a task, similar to what students do by pushing work on their assignments or studying for an exam until the last day before the exam or the assignment’s due date.
 
It is not possible to eliminate the Student Syndrome completely, but there are techniques a project manager can leverage to keep it under control: allocating shorter time estimates to tasks and keeping a buffer as a backup plan; identifying milestones for completing specific tasks and monitoring progress against these milestones with the project team on a regular basis, and creating shorter, more manageable tasks to uncover Student Syndrome symptoms, address them early on and prevent a larger impact on the project schedule.
 
 
3.墨菲定律
墨菲定律指出,会出错的事情总会出错。这意味着项目管理中我们可以抱着最好的希望,但要做最坏的打算。我们要着眼长远,提前计划,使风险管理成为日常项目管理的一部分。
 
Murphy’s Law 
 
Murphy’s Law basically points out that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. It was coined after Captain Edward A. Murphy, an engineer who said something along these lines when working on a project at Edwards Airforce Base in 1949. 
 
What this means is to always plan for the worst. You can hope for the best and assume best-case scenarios, but not without having a backup plan and maintaining a contingency buffer for the time when things go wrong or when tasks take longer than estimated. 
 
Also, this makes risk management even more critical. Start with the assumption that things will go wrong and your project is already at risk. Keep your eyes on the long run and plan ahead for potential surprises. 
 
Make risk management part of your ongoing project management routine and encourage your project team and all stakeholders to proactively look out for risks and work together to brainstorm options for managing risks.


做项目计划,千万别忽略这3点


优培东方送你一张变更日志表:
项目名称:                                       准备日期:                                     
变更编号 分类 变更描述 提交 提交日期 状态 处理
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
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